Paying Elly and Chase Almost Nothing Didn't Save the Reds — Depth Did Them In

Reds fans already know Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns were the two best things about 2026. The question hanging over the winter is whether a cheap star duo was ever enough.

Our Take: Red Reporter's deep dive makes the hard point stick — how little of the payroll Elly and Chase ate explains basically nothing about the win total. The roster around them does.

In Part 2 of "Elly, Chase, and Expectations," riverfront76 looked at 129 teams over 30 years whose top hitter and top pitcher both landed between 4.5 and 6.5 WAR — the same band as De La Cruz and Burns. Across that group, the share of payroll paid to those two stars predicted none of the variance in wins. A 2017 Diamondbacks club paying ~44% of payroll for ~12 WAR won 93 games. A 2001 Astros club paying under 1% for the same WAR total also won 93. The Reds' problem wasn't that their stars were underpaid.

What did bite: Hunter Greene pitched just five games after March elbow surgery. Nick Lodolo was limited to 20 starts and 103 innings and fell from a 4.7 WAR season to 1.1. The everyday lineup was below average everywhere but shortstop — second base, third base, and all three outfield spots were disasters, with the outfield combining for a 29th-of-30 Wins Above Average mark. Outside of Burns, no starter posted an ERA+ above 90.

What to watch this offseason: whether Cincinnati actually builds a supporting cast instead of hoping two stars paper over black holes. Elly and Chase already did their jobs. The rest of the roster didn't.

Sources: Red Reporter: Elly, Chase, and Expectations – Part 2