JJ Bleday's Unlucky Finish Says There's More in the Tank for the Reds in 2027

Reds fans, remember May? JJ Bleday was the best hitter in the National League for a minute, and the numbers say that guy didn't just disappear.

Bleday was named NL Player of the Month for May, per MLB. Red Reporter's Wick Terrell points out that on the morning of June 2 he owned a .301/.399/.655 line with 10 homers in 31 games, and his .304 BABIP at the time was completely normal. Then the bottom fell out. Among the 163 MLB hitters with at least 300 plate appearances from June 2 through the end of the regular season, nobody posted a worse BABIP than Bleday's .216, according to Red Reporter.

He finished 2026 at .217/.324/.416 (.740 OPS) in 545 plate appearances with a 105 OPS+ and 1.2 bWAR. Not great, not terrible, and the Reds got it for $1.4 million with two more years of team control.

Our Take: This is a fly-ball hitter who got buried by bad luck, not a fluke who got found out. Red Reporter notes his expected slugging ran about 40 points higher than his actual slugging after June 2, and his exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate all sat in the middle of the pack. Run back the same approach, keep him away from left-handed pitching, and 2027 should look a lot better on the back of his baseball card.

What to watch: how the Reds build the corner outfield this winter. If they hand Bleday the strong side of a platoon, he's a cheap bet to bounce back.

Sources: Red Reporter, MLB.com